Why There Will Never Be Another Facebook
Whenever you have a dominant player in the market, such as Facebook in social networking or Google in search engine marketing, every new start up or competitor gets the comparison. The world of social media loves to go looking for the next Facebook, and any start up which shows promise invariably gets branded with the label at some point.
But will there ever be another Facebook? I can think of a few reasons why there won’t:
We don’t need one, and we probably don’t want one.
For a company to come along, and displace well established players in any market, there needs to be a desire from customers to move away from what is currently in place. Whilst undoubtedly some users lose interest over time, most of my “friends” still use Facebook on a daily basis. Users want a means for connecting and communicating with people they know online and they have one. I don’t hear anybody grumbling about too many things that Facebook does badly, or that they don’t like, so I don’t see any reason why they would change.
The future doesn’t allow for another
The world of online and more specifically how people spend their time online, is changing. News and media is changing, advertising is changing, interaction and communication is changing. This evolution of online interaction is going to continue and I don’t think the future would allow for another Facebook. Social networks, channels and interaction will remain, but probably not in their current format. It might be more vertical networks will spring up for groups with common interests, it might be we hold all our information in a cloud environment and choose where to expose it, meaning there is no true network at all. Either way, I’m pretty sure the future doesn’t support the emergence of a dominant single player such as Facebook.
You can see everything from the top
Times gone by have taught us that the best place to fight a battle from is up high. Whether at the top of a hill, or the turrets of a castle, it is much easier to win when you’re in top spot as you can see everything going on below, and pick of the challengers one by one. Both Facebook and Google have already shown their ability to do this in their respective markets. Google has quickly picked some of the best points about bing, and integrated them into its own design. Facebook has made steps to see off the challenge of twitter by making its status updates more conversational an allowing you to reference other users with the @ function. It has also taken elements of digg and reddit and developed its “like” system and Facebook connect and no doubt it is in the process of developing a check-in system to counter Foursquare’s challenge. As challengers enter the market the dominant players can quite easily replicate the best bits and integrate with their own platform, effectively seeing off the challenge before it develops and giving their users no reason to move.
These reasons, plus many more are why there will never be another Facebook, whatever the future of social media holds. The media will continue to talk about Facebook killers, and many an entrepreneur will waste countless hours trying to build one. But in reality, the future is going to hold something completely different.
Robert Weatherhead is heads up the SME solutions function at Latitude Group Ltd, a leading UK digital marketing agency.
All Comments
Hi, great post although I do disagree with some of the points. Yes, I agree that people want a means to communicate online and stay in touch with friends. However, if Facebook will be the one and only in the long run is doubtable. Think of Myspace. For years and years it’s been THE one medium to connect users and allow them to stay in touch online. Besides the company being managed badly, Facebook came along and offered something easier and more convenient. Although Facebook is currently, more or less, doing a great job, we can’t say that not another college grad will come up with something smarter, more convenient and easier.
As you mentioned, the online world changes constantly and we change with it. Who would have thought Twitter would grow to the point it did because, lets face it, 140 characters online doesn’t sound like the most appealing thing in the beginning. It’s the hidden value that services like Facebook and Twitter provide.
The future of social networks is uncertain. I’m sure they will remain but who knows, we might end up with one that does everything for us. A Facebook, Twitter, Foursquare.. all in one. We never know. As to the need.. our needs change so quickly. 20 years ago there was no need for a Facebook. Maybe in another 10 there will be the need for something we can’t imagine now.
I really liked your post. It’s definitely food for thought! Great work!
Great, but i gotta agree with Antonia. The future of social networks is uncertain. #fact. We can’t preview what may happens in the next few years, this ciberworld just changes all the time. But i gotta disagree when she talks about facebook, twitter, foursquare all together, i guess this is possible, but i’m kinda sceptical if it woudl really work. I’m thinking about writing something about it on my blog, let me research a little bit more… I just favorited this post!
@Antonia I think where myspace went wrong is that they failed to innovate and improve their platform. Facebook have already shown they are not scared to make changes for the better of the network, taking on the best of twitter and digg with recent updates.
In terms of a Facebook, Twitter and Foursquare all in one, the point I was trying to make is that this is what Facebook is likely to become. They have already taken on elements of twitter. And when they launch FaceSquare (OK I made that up!) they will give people no reason to desert them and use Foursquare.
@Eloy Of course, noone can accurately predict the future, but its fun and interesting to try is it not!?! Thats what makes for posts like these and healthy debate. If nothing else it gets everybody thinking! Look forward to the post, make sure you add a link to it on here so we can continue the debate.
great post, and totally agree that no one knows where the future lies, but it is certainly fun having a debate
!! facebook is a mammoth #fact, however its future as @robert put it depends on their ability to innovate, which they are doing, unlike myspace! However facebook do have their flaws, one of which is m.zuckerberg. His naivety to pressing issues like online privacy is concerning! Which is why potential competitors like Diaspora have a good chance to succeed where facebook seem to be going wrong. Technology VC’s like Fred Wilson (VC behind Twitter and de.licio.us) are betting on this very issue, which is why they are investing in potential facebook competitors like Diaspora. facebook is certainly huge and may continue to be for now, however if they don’t rethink privacy, they are destined to fall!
I think it’s very difficult to say. In a way, it can be difficult to compare MySpace and Facebook both from a user point of view or a marketers point of view. MySpace became big prior to the development of Web 2.0 and was targeted at young teens, still in High Scool. It was very much a closed network with any changes or offerings coming directly from MySpace themselves. Prior to Web 2.0 this was a complete new offering in terms of social media and allowed anyone to build an online persona. Businesses were offered the chance to realign their online brands through MySpace’ very own TV channels and programmes to a very emotive consumer group, something which Facebook is still unable to offer.
Facebooks offering comes primarily in its sheer volume of information held and essentially sells this to the highest bidder. It is only very recently that they have really been able to successfully monetise this. Facebook themselves are still very slow on the uptake and this could be attributed to Mark Zuckerburg. Their success comes in the form of their open network where users do all the leg work and are no longer consumers but ‘prosumers’.
The reason Facebook is so big is a combination of Technology and the users themselves, helping to engineer and structure the platform, rather than Facebook themselves. In the era of Web 2.0 and potentially Web 3.0?? consumers can get very bored…and fast. If the consumers go, the brands will go. Facebook need to keep up.
Have to disagree completely! You could have said the same about Microsoft and Yahoo! Now we have Google and Apple dominating etc.. you shouldn’t ever try to predict the future on the web.
You never know what’s round the corner
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